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Bia Mesquita
6-0-0
VS
2026-11-14
UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit
Women's Bantamweight
Macy Chiasson
11-5-0
MAIN + MARKET PREDICTION
Bia Mesquita
70.0% CONFIDENCE
Fight Insights
40%
Macy Chiasson
Fighters who are 35 or older have won 40% of their UFC fights (961-1432)
Macy Chiasson: age 35
58%
Bia Mesquita
Fighters who absorb under 2.2 significant strikes per minute have won 58% of their UFC fights (1262-912)
Bia Mesquita: absorbs 1.3/min
59%
Bia Mesquita
Fighters who are undefeated with 5+ wins have won 59% of their UFC fights (900-615)
Bia Mesquita: 6-0-0 record
57%
Bia Mesquita
Fighters who average 2.8+ takedowns per 15 minutes have won 57% of their UFC fights (1170-882)
Bia Mesquita: 3.6 takedowns/15 min
59%
Matchup
Fights where a fighter who has finished their last 2+ opponents end inside the distance 59% of the time (vs 52% of all UFC fights, n=1115)
60%
Division & format
Women's Bantamweight fights go the distance 60% of the time (vs 48% of all UFC fights, n=252)
22%
Division & format
Women's Bantamweight fights end in a KO/TKO 22% of the time (vs 33% of all UFC fights, n=252)
Real UFC history since 2006, using each fighter's record, form and stats as they stood before every past fight. Only patterns that hold up statistically (corrected for testing many ideas at once) and point the same way in both halves of history are shown — these describe the past, they are not predictions.
What Every Model Says
Main + Market currently viewing
70.0% 30.0%
Bia Mesquita
XGBoost
70.0% 30.0%
Bia Mesquita
LightGBM
69.0% 31.0%
Bia Mesquita
Logistic (Core)
68.4% 31.6%
Bia Mesquita
CatBoost
67.6% 32.4%
Bia Mesquita
Ensemble
63.9% 36.1%
Bia Mesquita
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
68.8% 31.2%
Bia Mesquita
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
64.0% 36.0%
Bia Mesquita
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
71.0% 29.0%
Bia Mesquita
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
68.2% 31.8%
Bia Mesquita
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
66.8% 33.2%
Bia Mesquita
With Odds · CatBoost
56.9% 43.1%
Bia Mesquita
With Odds · Ensemble
49.9% 50.1%
Macy Chiasson
With Odds · LightGBM
52.5% 47.5%
Bia Mesquita
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
68.4% 31.6%
Bia Mesquita
With Odds · XGBoost
51.8% 48.2%
Bia Mesquita
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
53%
Decision
15%
KO / TKO
32%
Submission
Decision52.8%
KO / TKO15.4%
Submission31.8%
How long it lasts 3-round fight
50%
Goes the distance
fair -102
50%
Ends in a finish
fair +102
Rounds lineOverUnder
0.5 90% -901 10% +901
1.5 68% -210 32% +210
2.5 50% -102 50% +102
When it ends
Round 128%
Round 222%
Round 30%
Goes the distance50%
"Over 1.5" means the fight lasts past the middle of round 2, the way sportsbooks settle it. Fair odds are the break-even price with no vig, so compare them with a book's line. On unseen fights this model beat the plain base rate by about 4% (log loss; 51% of 3-round fights go the distance), so treat it as a tilt away from the base rate, not a certainty.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Bia Mesquita
Macy Chiasson
Net striking dominance
Matchup +0.72
9%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup -10
7%
Age
Macy Chiasson 35.3 yrs
6%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Macy Chiasson +1.47
6%
Age
Bia Mesquita 35.6 yrs
6%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup 0.05
5%
Finishing threat edge
Matchup 0.38
5%
Last 2 avg fight time
Bia Mesquita 161.50
4%
Total career fights (incl. non-UFC)
Bia Mesquita 6
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Bia Mesquita 2.06
4%
Body strikes absorbed per min
Bia Mesquita 0.40
3%
Elo rating edge
Matchup 26
3%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup 22%
3%
Fights per year
Macy Chiasson 1.93
3%
← pushes toward Bia Mesquita pushes toward Macy Chiasson →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Bia Mesquita

Win Streak
3
Finish Rate
100%
Avg Duration
4.2m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W SUB
W SUB
W SUB
Height: 163 cm
Weight: 135 lbs
Reach: 170 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Macy Chiasson

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
11.2m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
L DEC
L DEC
W KO
W SUB
Height: 180 cm
Weight: 135 lbs
Reach: 183 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Bia Mesquita
ADVANTAGE
Macy Chiasson
Striking Accuracy
48.7%
+3.4%
45.3%
Strikes Landed/Min
3.02
+0.44
2.58
Strikes Absorbed/Min
2.07
+0.75
2.83
Striking Defense
58.7%
+10.5%
48.2%
Takedown Accuracy
44.9%
+7.2%
37.7%
Takedown Defense
58.3%
+1.3%
59.5%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.09
+0.00
0.08
Avg Control Time (sec)
84.40
+5.69
78.71
Strikes Per Round
15.78
+1.87
13.91
Head Strike %
69.4%
+11.8%
57.6%
Body Strike %
17.1%
+10.3%
27.4%
Leg Strike %
13.5%
+1.5%
15.0%
Last 5 Win Rate
100.0%
+60.0%
40.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
100.0%
+80.0%
20.0%