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Bia Mesquita
6-0-0
VS
2026-11-14
UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit
Women's Bantamweight
Macy Chiasson
11-5-0
RECENCY-HEAVY · LOGISTIC (CORE) PREDICTION
Bia Mesquita
68.6% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
67.0% 33.0%
Bia Mesquita
LightGBM
67.7% 32.3%
Bia Mesquita
Logistic (Core)
68.8% 31.2%
Bia Mesquita
CatBoost
69.8% 30.2%
Bia Mesquita
Ensemble
64.3% 35.7%
Bia Mesquita
No Age · CatBoost
70.3% 29.7%
Bia Mesquita
No Age · Ensemble
66.0% 34.0%
Bia Mesquita
No Age · LightGBM
71.2% 28.8%
Bia Mesquita
No Age · Logistic (Core)
72.0% 28.0%
Bia Mesquita
No Age · XGBoost
70.6% 29.4%
Bia Mesquita
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
68.5% 31.5%
Bia Mesquita
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
63.7% 36.3%
Bia Mesquita
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
69.0% 31.0%
Bia Mesquita
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core) currently viewing
68.6% 31.4%
Bia Mesquita
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
70.6% 29.4%
Bia Mesquita
With Odds · CatBoost
54.9% 45.1%
Bia Mesquita
With Odds · Ensemble
48.8% 51.2%
Macy Chiasson
With Odds · LightGBM
56.4% 43.6%
Bia Mesquita
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
68.8% 31.2%
Bia Mesquita
With Odds · XGBoost
56.7% 43.3%
Bia Mesquita
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
52%
Decision
17%
KO / TKO
31%
Submission
Decision52.4%
KO / TKO17.1%
Submission30.6%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 143.6%
Round 242.2%
Round 3+14.1%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 48% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Bia Mesquita
Macy Chiasson
Net striking dominance
Matchup +0.72
12%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Macy Chiasson +1.47
8%
Age
Bia Mesquita 35.6 yrs
7%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup -10
6%
Age
Macy Chiasson 35.3 yrs
6%
Avg takedowns attempted
Bia Mesquita 2.06
5%
Last 2 avg fight time
Bia Mesquita 161.50
5%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup 0.05
5%
Elo rating edge
Matchup 26
4%
Strikes absorbed/min
Bia Mesquita 2.07
3%
Fights per year
Macy Chiasson 1.93
3%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup 22%
3%
Body strikes absorbed per min
Bia Mesquita 0.40
2%
Sub attempts/fight
Bia Mesquita 0.65
2%
← pushes toward Bia Mesquita pushes toward Macy Chiasson →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Bia Mesquita

Win Streak
3
Finish Rate
100%
Avg Duration
4.2m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W SUB
W SUB
W SUB
Height: 163 cm
Weight: 135 lbs
Reach: 170 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Macy Chiasson

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
11.2m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
L DEC
L DEC
W KO
W SUB
Height: 180 cm
Weight: 135 lbs
Reach: 183 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Bia Mesquita
ADVANTAGE
Macy Chiasson
Striking Accuracy
48.7%
+3.4%
45.3%
Strikes Landed/Min
3.02
+0.44
2.58
Strikes Absorbed/Min
2.07
+0.75
2.83
Striking Defense
58.7%
+10.5%
48.2%
Takedown Accuracy
44.9%
+7.2%
37.7%
Takedown Defense
58.3%
+1.3%
59.5%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.09
+0.00
0.08
Avg Control Time (sec)
84.40
+5.69
78.71
Strikes Per Round
15.78
+1.87
13.91
Head Strike %
69.4%
+11.8%
57.6%
Body Strike %
17.1%
+10.3%
27.4%
Leg Strike %
13.5%
+1.5%
15.0%
Last 5 Win Rate
100.0%
+60.0%
40.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
100.0%
+80.0%
20.0%