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Patricio Freire
"Pitbull"
37-8-0
VS
2026-09-19
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
Featherweight
Dooho Choi
"The Korean Superboy"
16-4-1
CATBOOST PREDICTION
Dooho Choi 'The Korean Superboy'
64.2% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
31.8% 68.2%
Dooho Choi
LightGBM
35.9% 64.1%
Dooho Choi
Logistic (Core)
24.4% 75.6%
Dooho Choi
CatBoost currently viewing
35.8% 64.2%
Dooho Choi
Ensemble
29.0% 71.0%
Dooho Choi
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
56%
Decision
29%
KO / TKO
15%
Submission
Decision56.5%
KO / TKO28.8%
Submission14.8%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 150.1%
Round 228.6%
Round 3+21.3%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 44% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why CatBoost leans this way
Patricio Freire
Dooho Choi
Net striking dominance
Matchup -1.40
17%
Elo rating edge
Matchup -71
13%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup +24
11%
Age
Dooho Choi 35.4 yrs
8%
Age
Patricio Freire 39.2 yrs
7%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Patricio Freire -0.35
7%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup -0.09
7%
Avg takedowns attempted
Patricio Freire 3.43
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Dooho Choi 2.48
2%
Distance strike defense
Dooho Choi 63%
2%
Strikes absorbed/min
Patricio Freire 4.47
2%
Fights per year
Dooho Choi 0.87
2%
Striking defense
Dooho Choi 59%
2%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup -5%
2%
← pushes toward Patricio Freire pushes toward Dooho Choi →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Patricio Freire

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
15.0m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
W DEC
L DEC
Height: 168 cm
Weight: 145 lbs
Reach: 170 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Dooho Choi

Win Streak
3
Finish Rate
60%
Avg Duration
11.2m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
W KO
W KO
D DEC
L KO
Height: 178 cm
Weight: 145 lbs
Reach: 178 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Patricio Freire
ADVANTAGE
Dooho Choi
Striking Accuracy
48.7%
+3.9%
52.6%
Strikes Landed/Min
2.97
+1.42
4.39
Strikes Absorbed/Min
4.47
+0.91
3.56
Striking Defense
50.9%
+7.8%
58.7%
Takedown Accuracy
41.3%
+5.6%
46.9%
Takedown Defense
56.8%
+11.1%
68.0%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.13
+0.19
0.32
Avg Control Time (sec)
69.87
+4.18
74.05
Strikes Per Round
15.50
+4.55
20.05
Head Strike %
63.3%
+3.7%
67.0%
Body Strike %
21.0%
+1.4%
19.7%
Leg Strike %
15.6%
+2.3%
13.3%
Last 5 Win Rate
33.3%
+26.7%
60.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
0.0%
+60.0%
60.0%