Patricio Freire vs Dooho Choi

Patricio Freire

"Pitbull"

37-8-0

VS

2026-09-19

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2

Featherweight

Dooho Choi

"The Korean Superboy"

16-4-1

What Every Model Says

Logistic (Core)

market-margin__xgb-full

No Age · CatBoost

No Age · Ensemble

No Age · LightGBM

No Age · Logistic (Core)

No Age · XGBoost

Recency-Heavy · CatBoost

Recency-Heavy · Ensemble

Recency-Heavy · LightGBM

Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)

Recency-Heavy · XGBoost

With Odds · CatBoost currently viewing

With Odds · Ensemble

With Odds · LightGBM

With Odds · Logistic (Core)

With Odds · XGBoost

Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.

How It Ends

59%

Decision

27%

KO / TKO

14%

Submission

Decision59.1%

KO / TKO27.1%

Submission13.8%

If it's a finish, which round

Round 149.4%

Round 229.8%

Round 3+20.8%

A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 41% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.

Why CatBoost leans this way

Patricio Freire

Dooho Choi

Market latest prob diff

Matchup

45%

Experience edge (total fights)

Matchup

7%

Net striking dominance

Matchup

6%

Market opening prob diff

Matchup

6%

Age

Dooho Choi

5%

Age

Patricio Freire

4%

Avg takedowns attempted

Patricio Freire

3%

Strikes absorbed/min

Patricio Freire

3%

Strike rate delta r1 to r3

Patricio Freire

2%

Fights per year

Dooho Choi

1%

Distance strike defense

Dooho Choi

1%

Market line movement diff

Matchup

1%

Avg takedowns attempted

Dooho Choi

1%

Distance strike defense

Patricio Freire

1%

← pushes toward Patricio Freire pushes toward Dooho Choi →

Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.