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Patricio Freire
"Pitbull"
37-8-0
VS
2026-09-19
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
Featherweight
Dooho Choi
"The Korean Superboy"
16-4-1
RECENCY-HEAVY · LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Dooho Choi 'The Korean Superboy'
61.9% CONFIDENCE
ACTUAL RESULT — MODEL WAS WRONG
Patricio Freire 'Pitbull' won
KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:28
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
36.6% 63.4%
Dooho Choi
LightGBM
36.3% 63.7%
Dooho Choi
Logistic (Core)
25.0% 75.0%
Dooho Choi
CatBoost
34.5% 65.5%
Dooho Choi
Ensemble
30.7% 69.3%
Dooho Choi
market-margin__xgb-full
31.0% 69.0%
Dooho Choi
No Age · CatBoost
34.5% 65.5%
Dooho Choi
No Age · Ensemble
30.1% 69.9%
Dooho Choi
No Age · LightGBM
31.7% 68.3%
Dooho Choi
No Age · Logistic (Core)
23.6% 76.4%
Dooho Choi
No Age · XGBoost
35.0% 65.0%
Dooho Choi
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
35.8% 64.2%
Dooho Choi
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
31.9% 68.1%
Dooho Choi
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM currently viewing
38.1% 61.9%
Dooho Choi
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
25.5% 74.5%
Dooho Choi
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
37.7% 62.3%
Dooho Choi
With Odds · CatBoost
30.8% 69.2%
Dooho Choi
With Odds · Ensemble
28.8% 71.2%
Dooho Choi
With Odds · LightGBM
31.2% 68.8%
Dooho Choi
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
25.0% 75.0%
Dooho Choi
With Odds · XGBoost
31.4% 68.6%
Dooho Choi
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
59%
Decision
27%
KO / TKO
14%
Submission
Decision59.1%
KO / TKO27.1%
Submission13.8%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 149.4%
Round 229.8%
Round 3+20.8%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 41% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Patricio Freire
Dooho Choi
Net striking dominance
Matchup
10%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup
10%
Elo rating edge
Matchup
9%
Age
Patricio Freire
8%
Age
Dooho Choi
7%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Patricio Freire
5%
Strikes absorbed/min
Patricio Freire
5%
Strikes absorbed/min
Dooho Choi
5%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup
3%
Distance strike defense
Dooho Choi
3%
Distance strike defense
Patricio Freire
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Dooho Choi
3%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup
3%
Elo trend (last 3)
Patricio Freire
2%
← pushes toward Patricio Freire pushes toward Dooho Choi →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Patricio Freire

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
L DEC
W DEC
L DEC
Height: 168 cm
Weight: 145 lbs
Reach: 170 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Dooho Choi

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
W KO
W KO
W KO
D DEC
Height: 178 cm
Weight: 145 lbs
Reach: 178 cm
Stance: Orthodox