Arman Tsarukyan
"Ahalkalakets"
23-3-0
VS
Mauricio Ruffy
12-2-0
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
64.0%
36.0%
Arman Tsarukyan
LightGBM
69.7%
30.3%
Arman Tsarukyan
Logistic (Core)
69.5%
30.5%
Arman Tsarukyan
CatBoost
68.4%
31.6%
Arman Tsarukyan
Ensemble
66.7%
33.3%
Arman Tsarukyan
market-margin__xgb-full
77.0%
23.0%
Arman Tsarukyan
No Age · CatBoost
64.5%
35.5%
Arman Tsarukyan
No Age · Ensemble
61.6%
38.4%
Arman Tsarukyan
No Age · LightGBM
67.8%
32.2%
Arman Tsarukyan
No Age · Logistic (Core)
65.9%
34.1%
Arman Tsarukyan
No Age · XGBoost
66.2%
33.8%
Arman Tsarukyan
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
64.5%
35.5%
Arman Tsarukyan
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
66.3%
33.7%
Arman Tsarukyan
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
72.1%
27.9%
Arman Tsarukyan
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
66.8%
33.2%
Arman Tsarukyan
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
65.9%
34.1%
Arman Tsarukyan
With Odds · CatBoost
80.7%
19.3%
Arman Tsarukyan
With Odds · Ensemble
78.0%
22.0%
Arman Tsarukyan
With Odds · LightGBM
82.1%
17.9%
Arman Tsarukyan
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
69.5%
30.5%
Arman Tsarukyan
With Odds · XGBoost
currently viewing
81.7%
18.3%
Arman Tsarukyan
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
49%
Decision
33%
KO / TKO
18%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 51%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Arman Tsarukyan
Mauricio Ruffy
48%
10%
5%
4%
4%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
← pushes toward Arman Tsarukyan
pushes toward Mauricio Ruffy →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Arman Tsarukyan
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
KO
W
SUB
W
DEC
W
KO
W
KO
Height:
170 cm
Weight:
155 lbs
Reach:
183 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Mauricio Ruffy
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
KO
W
KO
W
KO
L
SUB
W
KO
Height:
180 cm
Weight:
155 lbs
Reach:
190 cm
Stance:
Orthodox