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Arman Tsarukyan
"Ahalkalakets"
23-3-0
VS
2026-09-19
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
Lightweight
Mauricio Ruffy
12-2-0
XGBOOST PREDICTION
Arman Tsarukyan 'Ahalkalakets'
71.3% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost currently viewing
71.3% 28.7%
Arman Tsarukyan
LightGBM
71.2% 28.8%
Arman Tsarukyan
Logistic (Core)
70.5% 29.5%
Arman Tsarukyan
CatBoost
68.0% 32.0%
Arman Tsarukyan
Ensemble
67.2% 32.8%
Arman Tsarukyan
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
52%
Decision
36%
KO / TKO
12%
Submission
Decision52.1%
KO / TKO35.7%
Submission12.2%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 143.1%
Round 239.7%
Round 3+17.2%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 48% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Arman Tsarukyan
Mauricio Ruffy
Net striking dominance
Matchup +1.23
16%
Elo rating edge
Matchup 50
9%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Mauricio Ruffy -0.75
8%
Head absorption rate
Mauricio Ruffy 52%
6%
Strikes absorbed/min
Arman Tsarukyan 2.00
5%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup -0.05
5%
Avg control time
Arman Tsarukyan 110.45
5%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Arman Tsarukyan -1.04
5%
Avg takedowns attempted
Mauricio Ruffy 1.37
4%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup +12
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Arman Tsarukyan 4.48
3%
Fights in last 2 years
Mauricio Ruffy 5
3%
Age
Arman Tsarukyan 29.9 yrs
3%
Fights per year
Arman Tsarukyan 1.82
3%
← pushes toward Arman Tsarukyan pushes toward Mauricio Ruffy →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Arman Tsarukyan

Win Streak
5
Finish Rate
60%
Avg Duration
10.6m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W SUB
W DEC
W KO
W KO
W DEC
Height: 170 cm
Weight: 155 lbs
Reach: 183 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Mauricio Ruffy

Win Streak
2
Finish Rate
60%
Avg Duration
7.8m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
W KO
L SUB
W KO
W DEC
Height: 180 cm
Weight: 155 lbs
Reach: 190 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Arman Tsarukyan
ADVANTAGE
Mauricio Ruffy
Striking Accuracy
51.1%
+0.4%
51.5%
Strikes Landed/Min
3.52
+0.16
3.36
Strikes Absorbed/Min
2.00
+1.06
3.06
Striking Defense
55.2%
+2.1%
57.3%
Takedown Accuracy
40.8%
+4.6%
36.2%
Takedown Defense
66.8%
+7.5%
74.3%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.23
+0.46
0.69
Avg Control Time (sec)
110.45
+59.04
51.42
Strikes Per Round
16.92
+0.60
16.31
Head Strike %
66.4%
+4.7%
71.1%
Body Strike %
20.1%
+5.3%
14.8%
Leg Strike %
13.5%
+0.5%
14.1%
Last 5 Win Rate
100.0%
+20.0%
80.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
60.0%
EVEN
60.0%