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Ryan Gandra
"Problema"
8-1-0
VS
2026-09-19
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
Middleweight
Ozzy Diaz
10-3-0
NO AGE · LOGISTIC (CORE) PREDICTION
Ryan Gandra 'Problema'
72.8% CONFIDENCE
ACTUAL RESULT — MODEL WAS CORRECT
Ryan Gandra 'Problema' won
KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:04
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
74.4% 25.6%
Ryan Gandra
LightGBM
73.4% 26.6%
Ryan Gandra
Logistic (Core)
75.3% 24.7%
Ryan Gandra
CatBoost
72.8% 27.2%
Ryan Gandra
Ensemble
74.2% 25.8%
Ryan Gandra
market-margin__xgb-full
82.0% 18.0%
Ryan Gandra
No Age · CatBoost
70.6% 29.4%
Ryan Gandra
No Age · Ensemble
72.6% 27.4%
Ryan Gandra
No Age · LightGBM
72.2% 27.8%
Ryan Gandra
No Age · Logistic (Core) currently viewing
72.8% 27.2%
Ryan Gandra
No Age · XGBoost
68.0% 32.0%
Ryan Gandra
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
74.8% 25.2%
Ryan Gandra
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
74.3% 25.7%
Ryan Gandra
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
73.6% 26.4%
Ryan Gandra
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
75.0% 25.0%
Ryan Gandra
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
75.1% 24.9%
Ryan Gandra
With Odds · CatBoost
81.0% 19.0%
Ryan Gandra
With Odds · Ensemble
80.1% 19.9%
Ryan Gandra
With Odds · LightGBM
80.8% 19.2%
Ryan Gandra
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
75.3% 24.7%
Ryan Gandra
With Odds · XGBoost
82.4% 17.6%
Ryan Gandra
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
29%
Decision
54%
KO / TKO
17%
Submission
Decision28.9%
KO / TKO54.3%
Submission16.8%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 169.4%
Round 218.7%
Round 3+12.0%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 71% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Ryan Gandra
Ozzy Diaz
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Ozzy Diaz
12%
Elo rating edge
Matchup
10%
Net striking dominance
Matchup
8%
Age
Ozzy Diaz
6%
Avg takedowns attempted
Ryan Gandra
5%
Strikes absorbed/min
Ryan Gandra
5%
Strikes absorbed/min
Ozzy Diaz
3%
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup
3%
Last 2 avg fight time
Ryan Gandra
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Ozzy Diaz
3%
Reach edge
Matchup
3%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup
3%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup
3%
Body strikes absorbed per min
Ryan Gandra
3%
← pushes toward Ryan Gandra pushes toward Ozzy Diaz →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Ryan Gandra

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
W KO
W KO
Height: 185 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 188 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Ozzy Diaz

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
L KO
W DEC
L KO
Height: 193 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 201 cm
Stance: Orthodox