Namsrai Batbayar
"Steppe Warrior"
9-1-0
VS
2026-08-29
UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song
Flyweight
Andre Lima
"Mascote"
11-0-0
RECENCY-HEAVY · LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Andre Lima 'Mascote'
59.9% CONFIDENCE
ACTUAL RESULT — MODEL WAS CORRECT
Andre Lima 'Mascote' won
Submission · Round 3 · 3:03
How It Ends
57%
Decision
22%
KO / TKO
21%
Submission
Decision57.1%
KO / TKO21.6%
Submission21.3%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 144.8%
Round 230.6%
Round 3+24.6%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 43% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Namsrai Batbayar
Andre Lima
Elo rating edge
Matchup
17%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Andre Lima
12%
Age
Andre Lima
8%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup
7%
Age
Namsrai Batbayar
7%
Avg takedowns attempted
Andre Lima
5%
Avg takedowns attempted
Namsrai Batbayar
4%
Distance strike defense
Namsrai Batbayar
4%
Distance strike defense
Andre Lima
3%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup
3%
Striking defense
Andre Lima
3%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Namsrai Batbayar
3%
Sub attempts/fight
Andre Lima
3%
Elo rating
Namsrai Batbayar
2%
← pushes toward Namsrai Batbayar pushes toward Andre Lima →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Namsrai Batbayar

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L SUB
Height: 163 cm
Weight: 125 lbs
Reach: 173 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Andre Lima

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W SUB
L DEC
W SUB
W DEC
W DEC
Height: 170 cm
Weight: 125 lbs
Reach: 170 cm
Stance: Orthodox