Namsrai Batbayar
"Steppe Warrior"
9-1-0
Thin UFC data
VS
2026-08-29
UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song
Flyweight
Andre Lima
"Mascote"
11-0-0
XGBOOST PREDICTION
Andre Lima 'Mascote'
62.8% CONFIDENCE
How It Ends
57%
Decision
21%
KO / TKO
22%
Submission
Decision56.9%
KO / TKO20.8%
Submission22.3%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 148.1%
Round 234.0%
Round 3+17.9%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 43% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Namsrai Batbayar
Andre Lima
Elo rating edge
Matchup -44
14%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Andre Lima +1.12
13%
Age
Andre Lima 27.6 yrs
9%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup -0.04
8%
Age
Namsrai Batbayar 25.7 yrs
6%
Distance strike defense
Andre Lima 60%
4%
Sub attempts/fight
Andre Lima 0.60
4%
Years fighting
Namsrai Batbayar 0.0 yrs
3%
Elo rating
Andre Lima 1,544
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Andre Lima 2.64
3%
Head absorption rate
Andre Lima 60%
2%
Round 1 strike output
Namsrai Batbayar
2%
Distance strike defense
Namsrai Batbayar
2%
Total career fights (incl. non-UFC)
Namsrai Batbayar 10
2%
← pushes toward Namsrai Batbayar pushes toward Andre Lima →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Namsrai Batbayar

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Height: 163 cm
Weight: 125 lbs
Reach: 173 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Andre Lima

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
13.2m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
W SUB
W DEC
W DEC
W DQ
Height: 170 cm
Weight: 125 lbs
Reach: 170 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Namsrai Batbayar
ADVANTAGE
Andre Lima
Striking Accuracy
0.0%
+51.0%
51.0%
Strikes Landed/Min
0.00
+3.61
3.61
Strikes Absorbed/Min
0.00
+2.88
2.88
Striking Defense
0.0%
+57.3%
57.3%
Takedown Accuracy
0.0%
+41.1%
41.1%
Takedown Defense
0.0%
+68.9%
68.9%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.00
+0.11
0.11
Avg Control Time (sec)
0.00
+84.65
84.65
Strikes Per Round
0.00
+17.32
17.32
Head Strike %
0.0%
+52.2%
52.2%
Body Strike %
0.0%
+21.7%
21.7%
Leg Strike %
0.0%
+26.1%
26.1%
Last 5 Win Rate
0.0%
+80.0%
80.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
0.0%
+20.0%
20.0%