Donte Johnson
"Lock Jaw"
7-0-0
Thin UFC data
VS
Eric McConico
10-4-1
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
82.9%
17.1%
Donte Johnson
LightGBM
82.5%
17.5%
Donte Johnson
Logistic (Core)
79.2%
20.8%
Donte Johnson
CatBoost
82.9%
17.1%
Donte Johnson
Ensemble
currently viewing
81.9%
18.1%
Donte Johnson
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
47%
Decision
34%
KO / TKO
19%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 53%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Donte Johnson
Eric McConico
11%
10%
7%
6%
6%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
4%
4%
4%
3%
← pushes toward Donte Johnson
pushes toward Eric McConico →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Donte Johnson
Win Streak
2
Finish Rate
50%
Avg Duration
10.7m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
DEC
W
SUB
Height:
173 cm
Weight:
185 lbs
Reach:
188 cm
Stance:
Southpaw
Eric McConico
Win Streak
1
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
11.8m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
DEC
L
KO
W
DEC
L
KO
Height:
183 cm
Weight:
185 lbs
Reach:
196 cm
Stance:
Southpaw
Head-to-Head Stats
Donte Johnson
ADVANTAGE
Eric McConico
Striking Accuracy
Strikes Landed/Min
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Striking Defense
Takedown Accuracy
Takedown Defense
Knockdowns/Fight
Avg Control Time (sec)
Strikes Per Round
Head Strike %
Body Strike %
Leg Strike %
Last 5 Win Rate
Last 5 Finish Rate