Manon Fiorot
"The Beast"
13-2-0
VS
2026-09-12
UFC Fight Night: Elliott vs. Chairez
Women's Flyweight
Alexa Grasso
16-5-1
LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Manon Fiorot 'The Beast'
70.4% CONFIDENCE
How It Ends
63%
Decision
23%
KO / TKO
14%
Submission
Decision62.8%
KO / TKO23.1%
Submission14.1%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 144.6%
Round 230.7%
Round 3+24.7%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 37% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Manon Fiorot
Alexa Grasso
Net striking dominance
Matchup +1.25
18%
Age
Manon Fiorot 36.6 yrs
11%
Elo rating edge
Matchup 48
9%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup -7
8%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Manon Fiorot -0.49
6%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup 0.13
6%
Avg takedowns attempted
Manon Fiorot 3.42
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Alexa Grasso 2.06
4%
Distance strike defense
Manon Fiorot 64%
3%
Fights per year
Manon Fiorot 1.90
3%
Head-strike accuracy
Manon Fiorot 33%
2%
Age
Alexa Grasso 33.1 yrs
2%
Distance strike defense
Alexa Grasso 58%
2%
Round 1 strike output
Manon Fiorot 23.15
2%
← pushes toward Manon Fiorot pushes toward Alexa Grasso →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Manon Fiorot

Win Streak
1
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
16.2m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
L DEC
W DEC
W DEC
W DEC
Height: 170 cm
Weight: 125 lbs
Reach: 165 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Alexa Grasso

Win Streak
1
Finish Rate
40%
Avg Duration
17.5m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
L DEC
L DEC
D DEC
W SUB
Height: 165 cm
Weight: 125 lbs
Reach: 168 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Manon Fiorot
ADVANTAGE
Alexa Grasso
Striking Accuracy
42.9%
+3.6%
39.3%
Strikes Landed/Min
4.48
+1.29
3.20
Strikes Absorbed/Min
3.44
+0.04
3.40
Striking Defense
62.4%
+6.6%
55.8%
Takedown Accuracy
28.4%
+5.8%
34.2%
Takedown Defense
73.1%
+19.6%
53.5%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.10
+0.15
0.24
Avg Control Time (sec)
70.43
+11.45
58.98
Strikes Per Round
21.00
+4.64
16.35
Head Strike %
64.8%
+2.1%
62.6%
Body Strike %
22.4%
+4.0%
18.4%
Leg Strike %
12.8%
+6.1%
19.0%
Last 5 Win Rate
80.0%
+40.0%
40.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
20.0%
+20.0%
40.0%