Manon Fiorot
"The Beast"
13-2-0
VS
Alexa Grasso
16-5-1
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
73.9%
26.1%
Manon Fiorot
LightGBM
71.3%
28.7%
Manon Fiorot
Logistic (Core)
63.6%
36.4%
Manon Fiorot
CatBoost
72.2%
27.8%
Manon Fiorot
Ensemble
69.5%
30.5%
Manon Fiorot
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
73.1%
26.9%
Manon Fiorot
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
67.5%
32.5%
Manon Fiorot
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
71.0%
29.0%
Manon Fiorot
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
60.0%
40.0%
Manon Fiorot
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
69.6%
30.4%
Manon Fiorot
With Odds · CatBoost
73.7%
26.3%
Manon Fiorot
With Odds · Ensemble
71.2%
28.8%
Manon Fiorot
With Odds · LightGBM
currently viewing
72.8%
27.2%
Manon Fiorot
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
62.0%
38.0%
Manon Fiorot
With Odds · XGBoost
73.8%
26.2%
Manon Fiorot
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
63%
Decision
22%
KO / TKO
15%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 37%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Manon Fiorot
Alexa Grasso
32%
9%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
← pushes toward Manon Fiorot
pushes toward Alexa Grasso →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Manon Fiorot
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
DEC
W
KO
L
DEC
W
DEC
W
DEC
Height:
170 cm
Weight:
125 lbs
Reach:
165 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Alexa Grasso
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
DEC
W
KO
L
DEC
L
DEC
D
DEC
Height:
165 cm
Weight:
125 lbs
Reach:
168 cm
Stance:
Orthodox