Manon Fiorot
"The Beast"
13-2-0
VS
2026-09-12
UFC Fight Night: Elliott vs. Chairez
Women's Flyweight
Alexa Grasso
16-5-1
XGBOOST PREDICTION
Manon Fiorot 'The Beast'
73.9% CONFIDENCE
ACTUAL RESULT — MODEL WAS WRONG
Alexa Grasso won
Decision · Round 3 · 5:00
How It Ends
63%
Decision
22%
KO / TKO
15%
Submission
Decision63.1%
KO / TKO22.3%
Submission14.6%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 145.4%
Round 232.1%
Round 3+22.6%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 37% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Manon Fiorot
Alexa Grasso
Net striking dominance
Matchup
16%
Age
Manon Fiorot
8%
Elo rating edge
Matchup
7%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup
7%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup
6%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Manon Fiorot
5%
Avg takedowns attempted
Manon Fiorot
5%
Age
Alexa Grasso
4%
Fights per year
Manon Fiorot
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Alexa Grasso
3%
Sub attempts/fight
Manon Fiorot
3%
Distance strike defense
Manon Fiorot
3%
Head absorption rate
Manon Fiorot
3%
Striking defense
Manon Fiorot
2%
← pushes toward Manon Fiorot pushes toward Alexa Grasso →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Manon Fiorot

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
W KO
L DEC
W DEC
W DEC
Height: 170 cm
Weight: 125 lbs
Reach: 165 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Alexa Grasso

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
W KO
L DEC
L DEC
D DEC
Height: 165 cm
Weight: 125 lbs
Reach: 168 cm
Stance: Orthodox