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Anthony Hernandez
"Fluffy"
15-2-0
VS
2026-08-22
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
Middleweight
Gregory Rodrigues
"Robocop"
18-6-0
CATBOOST PREDICTION
Anthony Hernandez 'Fluffy'
72.1% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
72.5% 27.5%
Anthony Hernandez
LightGBM
76.6% 23.4%
Anthony Hernandez
Logistic (Core)
68.0% 32.0%
Anthony Hernandez
CatBoost currently viewing
72.1% 27.9%
Anthony Hernandez
Ensemble
76.0% 24.0%
Anthony Hernandez
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
45%
Decision
39%
KO / TKO
17%
Submission
Decision44.6%
KO / TKO38.6%
Submission16.7%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 147.5%
Round 231.0%
Round 3+21.4%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 55% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why CatBoost leans this way
Anthony Hernandez
Gregory Rodrigues
Net striking dominance
Matchup +0.44
15%
Avg takedowns attempted
Anthony Hernandez 7.42
12%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup -7
11%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup 0.03
8%
Age
Gregory Rodrigues 34.5 yrs
6%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Anthony Hernandez -0.32
6%
Avg control time
Anthony Hernandez 112.21
5%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup 11%
4%
Striker anti-wrestling edge
Matchup 0.16
3%
Distance strike defense
Gregory Rodrigues 55%
2%
Age
Anthony Hernandez 32.8 yrs
2%
Fights per year
Gregory Rodrigues 2.74
2%
Fights per year
Anthony Hernandez 1.70
2%
Sub attempts/fight
Anthony Hernandez 0.75
2%
← pushes toward Anthony Hernandez pushes toward Gregory Rodrigues →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Anthony Hernandez

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
60%
Avg Duration
15.2m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
W SUB
W DEC
W KO
W SUB
Height: 183 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 190 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Gregory Rodrigues

Win Streak
3
Finish Rate
40%
Avg Duration
10.3m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
W DEC
W KO
L KO
W DEC
Height: 190 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 190 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Anthony Hernandez
ADVANTAGE
Gregory Rodrigues
Striking Accuracy
56.2%
+7.9%
48.3%
Strikes Landed/Min
3.81
+0.28
4.08
Strikes Absorbed/Min
2.77
+0.72
3.49
Striking Defense
54.4%
+2.9%
51.5%
Takedown Accuracy
44.7%
+12.9%
31.8%
Takedown Defense
65.1%
+3.6%
61.5%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.10
+0.42
0.52
Avg Control Time (sec)
112.21
+37.91
74.30
Strikes Per Round
18.01
+0.93
18.95
Head Strike %
72.0%
+3.5%
68.5%
Body Strike %
15.5%
+6.7%
22.2%
Leg Strike %
12.5%
+3.2%
9.3%
Last 5 Win Rate
80.0%
EVEN
80.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
60.0%
+20.0%
40.0%