Anthony Hernandez
"Fluffy"
15-2-0
VS
2026-08-22
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
Middleweight
Gregory Rodrigues
"Robocop"
18-6-0
LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Anthony Hernandez 'Fluffy'
74.5% CONFIDENCE
ACTUAL RESULT — MODEL WAS WRONG
Gregory Rodrigues 'Robocop' won
Decision · Round 5 · 5:00
How It Ends
46%
Decision
37%
KO / TKO
17%
Submission
Decision45.6%
KO / TKO37.3%
Submission17.2%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 147.0%
Round 231.0%
Round 3+22.0%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 54% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Anthony Hernandez
Gregory Rodrigues
Avg takedowns attempted
Anthony Hernandez
18%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup
12%
Net striking dominance
Matchup
12%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup
5%
Age
Gregory Rodrigues
5%
Avg control time
Anthony Hernandez
5%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Anthony Hernandez
5%
Age
Anthony Hernandez
3%
Distance strike defense
Anthony Hernandez
3%
Head absorption rate
Anthony Hernandez
2%
Fights per year
Anthony Hernandez
2%
Elo rating
Anthony Hernandez
2%
Sub attempts/fight
Anthony Hernandez
2%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup
2%
← pushes toward Anthony Hernandez pushes toward Gregory Rodrigues →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Anthony Hernandez

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
L KO
W SUB
W DEC
W KO
Height: 183 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 190 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Gregory Rodrigues

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
W KO
W DEC
W KO
L KO
Height: 190 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 190 cm
Stance: Orthodox