Anthony Hernandez
"Fluffy"
15-2-0
VS
2026-08-22
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
Middleweight
Gregory Rodrigues
"Robocop"
18-6-0
LOGISTIC (CORE) PREDICTION
Anthony Hernandez 'Fluffy'
68.0% CONFIDENCE
How It Ends
45%
Decision
39%
KO / TKO
17%
Submission
Decision44.6%
KO / TKO38.6%
Submission16.7%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 147.5%
Round 231.0%
Round 3+21.4%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 55% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Anthony Hernandez
Gregory Rodrigues
Avg takedowns attempted
Anthony Hernandez 7.42
18%
Net striking dominance
Matchup +0.44
9%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup -7
6%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Anthony Hernandez -0.32
5%
Age
Anthony Hernandez 32.8 yrs
5%
Striking accuracy
Anthony Hernandez 56%
4%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup 0.03
4%
Age
Gregory Rodrigues 34.5 yrs
4%
Fights per year
Anthony Hernandez 1.70
3%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup 11%
3%
Head absorption rate
Anthony Hernandez 69%
3%
Takedown accuracy
Gregory Rodrigues 32%
3%
Submission threat edge
Matchup 0.23
3%
Last 2 avg fight time
Anthony Hernandez 904
3%
← pushes toward Anthony Hernandez pushes toward Gregory Rodrigues →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Anthony Hernandez

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
60%
Avg Duration
15.2m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
W SUB
W DEC
W KO
W SUB
Height: 183 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 190 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Gregory Rodrigues

Win Streak
3
Finish Rate
40%
Avg Duration
10.3m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
W DEC
W KO
L KO
W DEC
Height: 190 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 190 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Anthony Hernandez
ADVANTAGE
Gregory Rodrigues
Striking Accuracy
56.2%
+7.9%
48.3%
Strikes Landed/Min
3.81
+0.28
4.08
Strikes Absorbed/Min
2.77
+0.72
3.49
Striking Defense
54.4%
+2.9%
51.5%
Takedown Accuracy
44.7%
+12.9%
31.8%
Takedown Defense
65.1%
+3.6%
61.5%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.10
+0.42
0.52
Avg Control Time (sec)
112.21
+37.91
74.30
Strikes Per Round
18.01
+0.93
18.95
Head Strike %
72.0%
+3.5%
68.5%
Body Strike %
15.5%
+6.7%
22.2%
Leg Strike %
12.5%
+3.2%
9.3%
Last 5 Win Rate
80.0%
EVEN
80.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
60.0%
+20.0%
40.0%